Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs (2024)

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Subjects Abstract Access options Additional access options: Change history References Acknowledgements Author information Authors and Affiliations Contributions Corresponding author Ethics declarations Competing interests Supplementary information Supplementary Information Rights and permissions About this article Cite this article This article is cited by Understanding changes in heat waves, droughts, and compound events in Yangtze River Valley and the corresponding atmospheric circulation patterns Inter-seasonal connection of typical European heatwave patterns to soil moisture Surface drying impacts hot extremes in India: unravelling the exceptional 2010 and 2016 hot events Detecting flood-type-specific flood-rich and flood-poor periods in peaks-over-threshold series with application to Bavaria (Germany) Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India
  • Letter
  • Published: 27 May 2012
  • Benjamin Quesada1,2,
  • Robert Vautard1,
  • Pascal Yiou1,
  • Martin Hirschi3,4 &
  • …
  • Sonia I. Seneviratne4

Nature Climate Change volume2,pages 736–741 (2012)Cite this article

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  • Climate sciences

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Abstract

The mega heatwaves that struck western Europe in 2003 (ref.1) and Russia in 2010 (ref.2) are thought to provide a foretaste of future European summer climate3,4,5,6,7. Our ability to anticipate such events remains poor8, limiting adequate society adaptation. A deficit of precipitation in the preceding months favours summer heatwaves9,10,11,12,13, but the potential predictability from spring surface-moisture deficits, addressed in only a few case studies8,14,15, largely remains to be investigated. By analysing 64 years of observed temperature and precipitation we show that rainy winter/spring seasons over southern Europe inhibit hot summer days whereas dry seasons are followed by either a high or a low frequency of hot days, generalizing findings obtained over southeastern Europe10. Observations indicate that summer heat is more sensitive to the occurrence of specific weather regimes in initially dry cases than wet cases, inducing this asymmetry in summer heat predictability. Then, simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ref.16 and J-L., Dufresne, manuscript in preparation) indicate that projected drier conditions over southern Europe are likely to induce a widening in the frequency distribution of hot summer days, as the wet winter/spring seasons are likely to become rare. These mechanisms are found to play an increasingly important role in coming decades, with more hot extremes and a modified hot-day predictability.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the engineer team of the Institut Pierre–Simon Laplace (IPSL) Climate Modelling Centre for having carried out and provided the simulations made in the framework of the CMIP5 project. In particular M-A. Foujols provided priority access to the latest IPSL-CM5A-MR simulations. The authors also benefitted from discussions with P. Braconnot, J. Cattiaux, F. D’Andrea and H. Douville.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. LSCE, IPSL, CEA, UVSQ, Orme des merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    Benjamin Quesada,Robert Vautard&Pascal Yiou

  2. ARIA Technologies, 8-10 rue de la Ferme, 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt, France

    Benjamin Quesada

  3. Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Krähbühlstrasse 58, 8044 Zürich, Switzerland

    Martin Hirschi

  4. ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Universitätsstrasse 16, CH-8092Zürich, Switzerland

    Martin Hirschi&Sonia I. Seneviratne

Authors

  1. Benjamin Quesada

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  5. Sonia I. Seneviratne

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Contributions

B.Q. and R.V. designed the experiments and B.Q. carried out the observational and model statistical analyses. P.Y. advised the team and carried out the weather regime analysis. M.H. helped with the computation of additional rainfall indices. M.H. and S.I.S. helped to provide essential interpretations of the results. All authors contributed to the writing and correcting of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Benjamin Quesada.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Quesada, B., Vautard, R., Yiou, P. et al. Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs. Nature Clim Change 2, 736–741 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1536

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Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs (2024)
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